THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA
Keywords:
Macroeconomics, Stock Market Performance, Southeast AsiaAbstract
This study examines the impact of key macroeconomic variables—namely inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) on stock market performance in Southeast Asia. Employing a quantitative approach with panel data analysis, the research analyzes six ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore. By integrating cross-country and time-series data, the study captures both general trends and national variations in stock market responses to macroeconomic fluctuations. The results indicate that inflation and interest rates tend to exert a negative influence on stock indices, reflecting investor concerns over purchasing power and capital costs. Conversely, GDP growth shows a consistent and significant positive effect, highlighting the role of economic expansion in driving long-term market confidence. Meanwhile, exchange rate volatility presents heterogeneous impacts depending on each country’s structural dependence on foreign capital and trade. These findings underscore the importance of macroeconomic stability as a foundation for resilient capital markets in the ASEAN region.
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